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Very interesting new poll from the NY Times and CBS who found that 40% of Republicans believe a Democrat will win the 2008 election, while only 12% of Democrats believe that the GOP will be elected into office.
Republicans are also not satisfied with their current candidate offering – 6 in 10 want more options, while 6 in 10 of Democrats are happy with their selection. Pollsters also stated that supporting Bush’s war policy could put the candidate at a disadvantage.
“Asked what was more important to them in a nominee, a commitment to stay in Iraq until the United States succeeds or flexibility about when to withdraw, 58 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters said flexibility versus 39 percent who said a commitment to stay. The three leading Republican candidates are strong supporters of the war and the increase in American troops there. ”
One Republican polled said that the front runner for the Republican ticket hasn’t come forward yet, and it seems as though his party is behind him. If this is the case, what other possible Republicans will come forward?
Conducted 2/9-11; surveyed 1006 adults; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 2/16)If Your Party Nominated A Generally Well-Qualified Candidate For WH '08, Would You Be Comfortable In Voting For A WH'08er Who Was ___, Would You Vote For That Person?Yes No Catholic 95% 4% Black 94 5 Jewish 92 7 A woman 88 11 Hispanic 87 12 Mormon 72 24 Married for third time 67 30 72 years old 57 42 A homosexual 55 43 An atheist 45 53Comfortable Reservations Not VoteBlack 84% 9% 5% A woman 78 10 11 Mormon 58 14 24 72 years old 43 15 42 Married for third time 54 13 30
P.S.: John McCain will be 72 years old on election day, 2008. At least he beat out homosexuals and atheists!
Via Cosmic Variance
By now this question has been all over the news. Some of you may even have been asked it yourselves. Is America ready for a (female / African-American / (gasp!) Mormon) president? My questions is, does anybody care? Well, before I get attacked, let me explain. I think it would be great if we elected a president that, for stereotypical and bigoted reasons, would not have been electable a generation or two before or even 10 years ago. What I have a problem with is the fact that this seems to be turning into the issue, and not whether these people are qualified or not to begin with. Quite simply, I think a lot of people are making this an issue because we want to believe that this is an issue, and by then believing that this is an issue, we will make it an issue. It’s a vicious cycle. Are we really, as a country, not past the stage where we can elect a minority to our highest office? Or do we just think we’re not past that stage. According to a poll of U.S. adults from October of 2006, 61% of those surveyed said they think Americans are ready to elect a woman as president. Well, that’s kind of sad, but what’s interesting is that in an earlier poll from 2003, when asked if personally, would you be willing to vote for a minority candidate, about 90% said they would (the data was for a female, black, or Jewish president). Some of this can be attributed to the fact that individuals do not want to appear biased when asked for their personal thoughts, but a lot of it, I believe (or maybe hope), is that as a country, Americans are a lot more tolerant than we like to give ourselves credit for. Now I’m not naive…we still do have a long way to go, and we have come a long way in recent years, but how about we talk about the real issues and leave it for individuals to decide whether gender / race / religion is an issue for them.
One last question, could being female / black / Mormon actually help any of the candidates?
2008 Election Watch 